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Archive for January, 2006

Iran’s Nukes

January 29th, 2006

The first question that must be asked is, why does Iran want nuclear weapons, really why does any country want nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons are expensive to build and upkeep and the very possession of them label your nation as a miscreant in the international community. The political damage caused by the possession of nuclear weapons really out weighs the limited tactical and strategic benefit of possessing them.

Nuclear weapons are weapons that can never be used, the founding members of the Nuclear Club all hold to the idea publicly that they will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Privately they also hold to the promise that who ever uses a nuclear weapons first will be the next to be destroyed. And thusly is born the deterrent theory of Mutually Assured Destruction, who every fires first is assured to be the second to die. And that frightening little balancing act of annihilating power has worked to keep us from destroying the world for over half a century.

With the danger that being in the Nuclear Club poses to one’s continued existence it seems like no sane nation would want to join it. But throughout history no nation has every developed nuclear weapons because they wanted to, it has always been because they thought that they needed to. We developed Nuclear weapons in WWII because Nazi germany was developing the same weapons to use against Britain and the Soviets. The Soviets stole our nuclear plans because after WWII the US showed itself as being the pre-eminent power and willing to confront their expansionistic tendencies. The Western European nations developed their own nuclear weapons when faced by overwhelming Soviet forces along the Iron Curtain. China developed nuclear weapons when it found itself stuck between the US and USSR during the cold war. India developed nuclear weapons when the nuclear armed China sided with Pakistan over the contested Kashmir region, and Pakistan developed nuclear weapons shortly there after out of fear of a bolder nuclear armed India. And lastly Israel developed nuclear weapons (though they do not publicly admit to possessing them) as an added deterrent against invasion by Arab nations (as if the series of spankings that the IDF has handed Arab armies since 1948 has not been enough).

Even North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons is done more out of fear of invasion than desires for conquest and the spread of terror. The war between the US and North Korea has never officially ended and we have nuclear armed submarines parked off the coast of North Korea waiting for the order to blast the country into dust. The Pyongyang government hopes that the deterrence of the nuclear annihilation of Seoul will be enough to keep US forces from finishing what was started in 1950.

This brings us to Iran. Iran now has three borders that have American troops on the other side. They have known nuclear weapons in Israel pointing their way. And they have an American President who has sworn to carry out “regime change” upon them. Iran is at this point terrified that they are going to be invaded, and they have nothing to deter such an invasion other than a well practiced strategy of attrition warfare, a strategy that the US is well known for being able to counter. So what does this leave the Iranian government but to join the Club and hope that a couple of nuclear bombs can keep their borders safe for another generation.

Do I want Iran to have nuclear weapons? No, but as India and Pakistan have shown in their surprise membership, we do not get to choose who joins the club. We can invade Iran and pre-empt their ability to develop their own weapon… but all that is going to do is encourage every other nation that believes that they may one day be on the wrong side of our ire to speed up their own programs. That is our choice. We can make life so hard on Iran as to make the development of a nuclear weapon economically devastating, or we can invade them and scare every other developing power into stepping up their own programs. Because we unfortunately set a bad precedent when we invaded Iraq on the suspicion of their development of weapons of mass destruction instead of North Korea who was known to have them. We will not invade nations who are in the Club.

code_archaeologist Uncategorized

Twenty Years Ago…

January 27th, 2006

There are moments that burn themselves into the collective mind due to their poignance, tragedy, or triumphalism. For our parents, Neil Armstrong’s walk amazed them; Kennedy’s assassination shocked them. For many of us, the Challenger explosion was just such a landmark in our development.

Like thousands of other American children, I was watching the Shuttle launch that bright January day, mostly because of the presence of Christine McAuliffe. Never let it be said that the accomplishments of a teacher cannot capture national attention.

I remember quite clearly sitting in a 3rd grade classroom, waiting for the launch, something we were only able to do because of the 2 hour launch delay that happened that morning. I remember being impatient to go to lunch– I wanted the Shuttle to hurry up and lift off. At 10:38 CST, the Challenger lifted off, and elicited a cheer from a room full of kids. At 10:39:37 CST, we watched the Shuttle disintegrate before our eyes.

A stunned silence fell over our little corner of the world. Our teachers were too stunned to move to turn off the coverage. I remember odd things from that morning, like my first observation of CNN. I remember eating lunch in a stunned silence, with hundreds of other students. I remember the ubiquitous 6-10 year old’s games of ‘astronaut’ on the playground were totally absent that afternoon. I remember a silent bus ride and walk home at the end of the day. There wasn’t even a child’s typical antagonistic banter that day. I am fairly certain that our readers remember those stunned, silent times as well. My parents tried to explain it to me, but it was not easy. My mother made dinner while talking to me about the space program and its history.

I tuned in, like so many Americans, to the television address Ronald Reagan gave that night; I remember being grumbly earlier in the week, because the State of the Union was going to pre-empt my normal tv viewing. Reagan’s words are now etched in our national memory, but for a confused 9 year old, it felt like he was talking only to me. In hindsight, the speech is one of the five moments that I can point to that have made me profoundly Conservative.

The Challenger crew consisted of mission commander Francis R. Scobee; pilot Michael J. Smith; mission specialists Ronald E. McNair, Ellison S. Onizuka, and Judith A. Resnik; and payload specialists Gregory B. Jarvis., and Christine McAuliffe.

Today, take a moment to remember heroes. Lift your eyes, and look to the heavens; remeber their dedication, and its completeness.

Publius Uncategorized

Is it hot in here, or is it me?

January 25th, 2006

It was another sunny day in Massachusetts today, and another January day when I did not have to wear my coat outside. While I am enjoying the springlike temperatures (mostly 40s and 50s, though there were some 60s in the past few weeks), it just plain isn’t the way it used to be. Back when I was a kid (uphill! both ways!), winter in New England was cold. Freezing, even. With snow, and ice, and, you know, cold weather. Long underwear. Hot cocoa. Snow days.

NASA has named 2005 the warmest year on record. With no freak weather patterns like El Nino to blame it on, this is somewhat curious. What is more curious is a glance at the top five warmest years since the 1800s, when such records began to be kept: 2005, 1998 (thank you, El Nino), 2002, 2003, 2004.

Something fishy is going on, with scientists continuing to discuss the roles of fossil fuels and their resulting buildup of greenhouse gases on our increasing temps. As conspiracy theorists gain some buzz and credence with their talk of “peak oil,” and with the number of ridiculously oversized vehicles topping the market, is this even a topic up for debate anymore? We’re warming up, and we’re doing it fairly consistently. And while I enjoy balmier temperatures and a departure from frostbite, I’m not foolish enough to pretend it doesn’t exist. Or that it’s not significant. Or that we haven’t played a role in this.

The last four years were four of the five warmest years in history, yet there are some in power still claiming that global warming is a myth, that this is all a cosmic coincidence. I’ll think about that tomorrow when I once again leave my winter coat at home when I head off to work. In January. In Massachusetts.

jude Uncategorized